We discussed the problems with blackouts, loss of utility-dependent heat and supply disruptions triggered by severe cold weather in Texas over the past two months. We return to discussion of hyperinflation we'd begun in part 289 before Texas froze. Many economists agree inflation is likely with Harris/Biden policies.

The squandering of two trillion “relief” (mostly non-virus social programs and enhanced unemployment so workers avoid working) plus 2.3 trillion “infrastructure” (70 percent welfare, 6 percent real infrastructure) is already pushing up real estate and stock prices. Four trillion cash will trigger inflation. How quickly inflation will spread through the economy, and how severe it will be, is unknown-but with foxes guarding the henhouse, it could get nasty. Other countries that spent themselves silly during leftist takeovers, like Venezuela or Zimbabwe, had severe inflation-reaching 79 billion percent per month in Zimbabwe, stopping only when foreign currencies replaced Zimbabwe's paper. The photo from Wikepedia depicts a 100 trillion Zimbabwe fourth dollar bill-each fourth dollar was 1/10000000000000000000000000 (1/1025) of Zimbabwe's dollar of 20 years earlier. Inflation from excessive deficit spending also happened in the U.S. nationwide from 1778-1784 and in Confederacy 1863-64, as well as France 1795-1796, and Rome 276-334AD.

Although economies limp along in early inflation, late stages often bring severe economic disruption that may last years; disruption often aggravated by governmental reactions. Wage and price controls give results ranging from holes in plywood as “new products” in the U.S. under Nixon to serfdom in Europe in late Roman times imposed to keep peasants on farms. Currency controls, like capping bank withdrawals in Zimbabwe to equivalent of U.S. $0.25/day or blocking cash flow at borders, resulted in long lines for scarce rationed or subsidized items, and surging black markets with organized crime support. In severe inflation, disruption includes soaring unemployment (40 percent Germany 1923, 80 percent Zimbabwe 2008), or benefits lagging prices (1998 Russian pensions bought one meal, leaving pensioners hungry 29 days each month).

Dealing with Inflation

In part 289, we advised refinancing existing debt as fixed-rate loans because interest rates on variable-rate loans soar with inflation. Since governments, like Germany 1923, may save banks by reinstating debt at pre-hyperinflation equivalents, we also suggest paying off debts during inflation and getting receipts showing payment in full. We also suggested avoiding dollar-denominated bank accounts (except an emergency fund) and non-TIPS bonds; we suggested buying TIPS, stocks in sound companies, or investing in foreign bonds, stocks, and banks. We also suggested buying physical precious metals or real estate-rising prices in sound “value” stocks, silver, palladium, and real estate indicate others think alike.

Going beyond part 289, we suggest stockpiling consumables needed for 1-2 years of economic disruption-such as long-term storable food, spare shoes, utility-independent heat with fuel, and off-grid solar to replace electric bills. With law and order failing in large cities, relocation to smaller communities and defensive weapons both seem essential. We also suggest acquiring tools and equipment for home production like stovetop canners with jars and lids, dehydrators with oxygen absorbers, and sewing supplies for repairing clothes.

Other potentially-useful things include fertile land or an upgraded, fenced, garden area to grow food for your own consumption or trading. Also, a good stock of likely-tradable goods could prove handy, this might include food or basic essentials like matches, lighters, blankets, whiskey, winter clothes, and common-caliber ammunition.

A good investment may be new or additional, broadly marketable, job skills, with emphasis on “marketable.” Many skills do not require college degrees and can be learned quickly. Research job market potential for such skills before spending time, effort, and money to learn them.

Stock portfolios should avoid sexy web-based “tech,” favoring instead solid companies that make essentials like utilities, food, medicine, and other basic goods.

Buy all preps for inflation without variable rate, stock market margin, or credit card debt-variable-rate debt could become impossible to pay. Since even fixed-rate debt causes issues during economic disruptions, we suggest minimizing debt rather than betting on paying debt with inflated dollars.

WuFlu

I spent a semester of medical school on the 18 by 11 mile, Caribbean island of St Vincent, population 130,000. A volcano at the north end of the island erupted April 9, displacing 20,000 (an eruption killed 1,500 in 1902). In a nasty application of “vaccine passports,” only “fully vaccinated” are allowed on rescue ships.

One “variant of concern” case was detected in Fremont County, but 250 in El Paso County.

Counts

April 11, 2021, 9 p.m. 135,875,683 infected with 2,935,457 dead. U.S. 31,196,121 (562,064 dead); Brazil > 13.4 million, India > 13.35 million. In U.S., California > 3.7 million, Texas > 2.8 million and Florida > 2.12 million. Colorado 478,670 cases (6,296 dead). Fremont County 5,717 (state), county site shows 5,652, 2,532 community cases-3,120 in prisons, no active hospitalizations, 53 dead, 9,827 vaccinated. Neighbors Chaffee 1,540, Custer 177, El Paso 59,003, Park 637 Pueblo 16,399, and Teller 1,506.

Nine "variant of concern" cases detected in Fremont County, but 308 in El Paso and 26 in Chaffee counties.

On 4/13/21, the FDA and CDC stopped Johnson & Johnson vaccine use due to 6 people (of 6.8 million doses administered, or 0.0001 percent) with blood clots.

Counts

April 14, 2021, 8 a.m. 137,571,706 infected with 2,962,248 dead. U.S. 31,347,697 (563,475 dead); India > 13.87 million, Brazil > 13.6 million. In U.S., California > 3.7 million, Texas > 2.8 million and Florida > 2.13 million. Colorado 481,494 cases (6,316 dead). Fremont County 5,737 (state), county site shows 5,688, 2,566 community cases 3,122 in prisons, no active hospitalizations, 53 dead, 10,203 vaccinated. Neighbors Chaffee 1,540, Custer 177, El Paso 59,499, Park 644 Pueblo 16,540, and Teller 1,512.

April 11, 2021, 9 p.m. 135,875,683 infected with 2,935,457 dead. U.S. 31,196,121 (562,064 dead); Brazil > 13.4 million, India > 13.35 million. In U.S., California > 3.7 million, Texas > 2.8 million and Florida > 2.12 million. Colorado 478,670 cases (6,296 dead). Fremont County 5,717 (state), county site shows 5,652, 2,532 community cases 3,120 in prisons, no active hospitalizations, 53 dead, 9,827 vaccinated. Neighbors Chaffee 1,540, Custer 177, El Paso 59,003, Park 637 Pueblo 16,399, and Teller 1,506. 13 April 2021, FDA and CDC issue STOP order on Johnson & Johnson/Janssen vaccine for blood clots in 6 (of 6.8 million) recipients (0.0001 percent).