OK, I have been promising for weeks to talk about how and why Covid and other things have totally sc**d trade and our economy. And every week, I have had to push it back based on one domestic political atrocity or another that took priority. Last week, it was a foreign disaster that took precedence, and while it still has precedence, we are on hold to find out exactly what will happen and how to react.

As of last week, the Taliban had suddenly functionally conquered all of Afghanistan EXCEPT literally Kabul Airport. This despite the many public promises that Joe Biden made in the last few weeks to the Afghans AND to all of our NATO allies who were fighting alongside us, and his statements that the Taliban was months from being able to attack Kabul. The Biden regime literally cut and run, without telling our allies they were doing it, in the middle of the night; abandoning the one air base that was defendable and could have been used for a successful mass evacuation (Bagram Air Base), hundreds of aircraft, thousands of military vehicles and tanks, and hundreds of thousands of military rifles. The military had a plan for a controlled evacuation and withdrawal, they always do. But Biden ignored it.

Kabul Airport as of this morning (8-26-21) is totally surrounded by Taliban. There are an unknown number of non-military Americans (Federal government employees, Non-Governmental Organizations and Charities) scattered all over Afghanistan (about the size of Texas) and most of them are not in Kabul. And similar civilians from our NATO allies. The estimates total anywhere from 10,000-40,000. Then there are our troops and our allies' troops. And further tens of thousands of Afghan allies, and even more just Afghans trying to escape. All packed into and AROUND that airport. There is a kinda-sorta truce with the Taliban who have given us till Aug. 31 to get out of the airport or they will take it. We exist there at the Taliban's sufferance. Joe Biden begged for more time and was answered with something crude in Pashto.

Also, keep in mind that the Taliban is not an organized and disciplined military force like ours. More like a tribal organization, and they do not always follow orders. This morning one or more suicide bombers attacked the airport perimeter and according to news reports there are 40 dead and 120 injured, including either three or four of our Marines wounded. Some truce.

The airport itself is apparently a mass of confusion, with our State Department broadcasting orders for American civilians to get to the airport at all costs one day, and telling them to hunker down and hide the next day. The loading of planes leaving is far from optimal, with a lot leaving 40 percent empty, and it is reported that only 5 percent of those being evacuated are Americans.

This, Gentle Readers, is the good news. By my next article, it is going to be a bloodbath. But I cannot write about what has not yet happened. As y'all know, I am a history buff. I would suggest that if you are so inclined that you read up on what the British call the First Afghan War (1839-1842). It ended with the British trying to retreat on foot (everything being on foot in those days) from Kabul to British India because of amazingly incompetent command. Out of a British force of 4,500 troops and 12,000 Afghan civilian camp followers who left Kabul, exactly one (1) person survived. A British military doctor named William Brydon.

Just in passing, our allies around the world watching this are deciding we can't be trusted. The British Parliament declared Biden to be in contempt of Parliament for his directly lying to the face of the British Prime Minister. There is talk that NATO will stop joining us for any out of area military actions. In South Korea, the American and ROK military are under a joint command structure with us in charge. The Republic of Korea is making noises about taking their troops out from under our command and operating parallel instead because we can't be trusted.

So . . . until we know more from Kabul, I will talk about the economy.

We can start locally. Those in Cañon City do most of their day to day shopping at City Market, Safeway or Wal-Mart, unless going for specialty items and shops. And what do you notice when you enter those stores?

When you walk the aisles you see gaps in the shelves. Remember, to a food store, shelf space is key. Empty space is lost money, as you cannot sell empty space. Product representatives go to stores and finagle (and pay for) shelf placement to boost sales of their products. Yet, when you walk in to any of these stores today you see gaps here, whole shelves empty there, sometimes most of the side of an aisle. And the same in freezer cases and refrigerated meat counters. And this has been going on for month upon month.

I was active in writing about military matters during the Cold War, and met more than a few refugees from the Communist Bloc. One constant among them was their absolute shock and amazement at seeing American food stores for the first time. In Communist countries, most store shelves were bare, both variety and amounts of food you could buy were limited, and you had to wait for hours in line to get what little you were allowed. The ability to walk into a store full of food, choose what you want, and just pay for it and go was something that they could not dream of at home.

Now when you can't find what you want in these stores (or any stores today to be honest) do not blame the store staff or management. I promise you, they are busting their collective Gluteus Maximi, Minimi and Mediali to get stock on the shelves. All they can do is order from the warehouse what they need and want, and stock the shelves off of the trucks as soon as possible after it gets there. And they are.

“As soon as possible after it gets there” is the problem. The supply chains for the stores are screwed up four ways at least; long, wide, deep and continuous. There is a military axiom that applies. “Amateurs study tactics. Professionals study logistics.” You can only do what you can keep supplied.

Since we are here in mountain country, the warehouses that the stores get their supplies from are not here. They are in the large urban areas (for us Denver) where (logistics again) the supply lines (trains and trucks on highways) can bring things to the warehouses en-masse, they can be stored, and each store's order can be pulled, loaded on trucks and sent to the store that needs it.

As far as the store is concerned, their supply line is the trucks. How many trucks did each of the big stores in town get a week before Covid started? Well it varied a bit with store stock turnover and bringing things in for holidays, etc., but you can figure anywhere from five-seven per week and sometimes more. How many are they getting now? Maybe three-four. That is a significant cut in the stock they can put out, and there is no reduction in the number of people in town that are trying to buy goods. Therefore, you have some empty shelves because the supply of some products is not keeping up with demand.

But there is another factor in this. These warehouses in Denver (and other urban areas) are not packed full of stuff like they used to be. The buyers who get stuff from manufacturers and distributors for the warehouses are in the same position as the store managers ordering from the warehouses. They can order, but they have to take whatever the manufacturers and distributors have to sell to them, even if it does not meet all the needs of the stores. So the people at the warehouses decide what and how much from their limited stock that they can send to the stores. And when the truck arrives at the store it is kind of like a reverse Christmas. You open the package (the truck) and find out what is NOT there. And you put what IS there on the shelves and the customers come to the store and find out what is not there and logically focus on that.

But it also goes several layers back farther. The manufacturers and distributors have to order stuff too. Either components to be assembled into things to sell, or raw materials that have to be processed into something that can be manufactured into things to sell. If you are manufacturing steel whatchamacallits, you have to have all the different steel parts made by a foundry or factory to your spec.'s to make watchamacallits. The foundry needs iron ore, coke and whatever trace minerals are used in the alloy specs to make the steel. And they are all subject to the same supply line troubles.

If you are in the food manufacturing business, you need whatever base grain, meat, or vegetable you use for your product in the right quantity at the right time, at the right place. Also, you need the stuff for the right packaging and labels for both shipping and brand name. And once again, they all are subject to the same supply line troubles.

Having stuff on store shelves, to be bought, at a price you can pay is not just something that happens automatically. It all depends on a complex interweaving of actions and materials at just the right times. Our supply chains are breaking down. The end goal of this series (and yes, see the “Part 1” in the title, it will be several articles) will be to explain where we are going wrong, and suggest some ways to fix it. Assuming the unlikely event that I am not writing about a massacre in Afghanistan, an invasion of Taiwan by China, or a suspension of the Constitution by the Federal government because of Covid-abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz; “Part 2” will start explaining WHY supply chains are breaking down.

In the meantime, I will ask you to ponder the “rule of threes” as it might apply to an economy.

“You can live 3 minutes without air. You can live 3 days without water. You can live 3 weeks without food.”